Predicting the winner of a major international tournament is a natural part of being a football fan, even if it can sometimes be something of a fool's errand – as proven by Greece and Denmark.

But considering how integral statistics are to football these days, using data could potentially give you the edge, and that's where Stats Perform comes in.

Our Artificial Intelligence team have used Opta's extensive data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.

Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Euros Prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.

It takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.

Then, the rest of the tournament is simulated 40,000 times and analysed, providing the AI team with a percentage for each nation, showing the probability of them ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 11.

Without any further ado, let's check out the results, some of which may come as something of a surprise…

MOST-LIKELY WINNERS: France (20.5 per cent)

Well, this one probably isn't much of a shock. Anyone who has looked through the squad at Didier Deschamps' disposal has likely come to the conclusion that Les Bleus will have to implode a la the 2010 World Cup if they're to be beaten.

Most of the key players from their 2018 World Cup-winning squad are present, and now they can call upon the services of Karim Benzema again, which is no small thing.

 

Our model also gives France a 46.8 per cent chance of finish top of the so-called 'Group of Death', which also includes defending champions Portugal and a Germany side desperate for redemption after World Cup humiliation in Russia.

If France are successful, Deschamps will become the first man in history to win the World Cup and Euros as both a player and manager.

2. Belgium (15.7 per cent)

Could this be the last-chance saloon for Belgium's 'Golden Generation'? Our predictor model certainly suggests they're still in with a great chance of winning the title, with their 15.7 per cent the second highest.

They have the joint-oldest squad at the tournament (29.2 years) along with Sweden, so while they're certainly not a young team, several of their best players are right at the peak of their powers, with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku coming into the tournament arguably in the form of their lives.

 

They looked sharp in qualifying – for what it's worth – with a 100 per cent win record and a 40-goal haul that wasn't matched by any other team, while they will be strong favourites to win their group ahead of Russia, Denmark and Finland.

3. Spain (11.3 per cent)

Now, one thing our model cannot take into consideration is a coronavirus outbreak. La Roja had to field their Under-21s for the senior side's final pre-Euros warm-up game against Lithuania – while it means nothing for their chances at the tournament, they did ease to a 4-0 win.

It remains to be seen if there are any further consequences of Sergio Busquets and Diego Llorente testing positive for COVID-19, but if we assume Luis Enrique is able to rely on a squad that's more or less the selection he initially picked, they will at least be strong options to reach the latter stages.

Although perhaps not blessed with the kind of 'superstar' talent they've had at other tournaments over the past 15 years or so, they do have a highly regarded coach and beat Germany 6-0 as recently as November. Nevertheless, their disrupted build-up to the tournament could be telling when their campaign starts.

4. Germany (9.8 per cent)

Joachim Low's going to have to upset the odds if he is to enjoy one last hurrah with Die Mannschaft. The World Cup-winner coach is stepping down a year early after the Euros, with Hansi Flick set to take over.

Having the likes of Thomas Muller back in the squad after a stunning couple of seasons with Bayern Munich will surely improve their chances – though our model doesn't take player data into account.

 

The predictor will see that Germany have failed to beat Denmark and North Macedonia in two of their three most recent games, while they also have a particularly hard group.

5. Portugal (9.6 per cent)

The other major footballing power from the 'Group of Death' – our predictor suggests Portugal are the least likely of themselves, France and Germany to win Euro 2020.

Nevertheless, La Selecao will surely feel good about themselves heading into the competition. Their squad is arguably significantly better than the one that won Euro 2016, while coach Fernando Santos is a shrewd operator.

They also have this chap up front called Cristiano Ronaldo, who is one away from setting a new record for the most goals (10) in European Championship history.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

According to our predictor, a resurgent Italy and Netherlands are the next most likely to win the tournament, which would represent a rather good turnaround from missing out on the 2018 World Cup – in fact, the Oranje weren't at Euro 2016 either.

At this point there are probably many of you pondering – assuming you've not just scrolled straight down to the list – about England's chances.

Well, the Three Lions' ranking here is a prime example of how a good draw can really pay. While they should – in theory, at least – have more than enough firepower to get out of a group that also contains Croatia, neighbours Scotland and Czech Republic, their route to the final would almost certainly see them come up against one – or more – of Germany, France, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. They're also probably not helped by the fact they've played more Euros games (31) without reaching the final than any other team.

England's 5.2 per cent chance of success sees them behind Denmark (5.4 per cent), whose path to the final would likely be a little kinder, though the caveat is that the Three Lions could potentially play the vast majority of their matches on home soil at Wembley.

Tournament debutants North Macedonia are, perhaps unsurprisingly, the least likely to win Euro 2020, with their chances rated at 0.02 per cent.

 

6. Italy (7.6 per cent)

7. Netherlands (5.9 per cent)

8. Denmark (5.4 per cent)

9. England (5.2 per cent)

10. Switzerland (2.3 per cent)

11. Sweden (1.5 per cent)

12. Croatia (1.0 per cent)

13. Russia (1.0 per cent)

14. Poland (0.8 per cent)

15. Ukraine (0.8 per cent)

16. Wales (0.6 per cent)

17. Turkey (0.4 per cent)

18. Czech Republic (0.2 per cent)

19. Austria (0.2 per cent)

20. Finland (0.1 per cent)

21. Hungary (0.1 per cent)

22. Scotland (0.1 per cent)

23. Slovakia (0.04 per cent)

24. North Macedonia (0.02 per cent)

Thomas Muller and Mats Hummels made their first appearances for Germany since November 2018 as Joachim Low's side were held to a 1-1 draw by Denmark in a Euro 2020 warm-up clash on Wednesday. 

The duo were among the experienced players removed from Low's thinking in March 2019 as he plotted a new path forward following Germany's group-stage exit at the 2018 World Cup.

But the pair have been trusted with helping Germany enjoy a successful tournament at the rescheduled Euros, which will be Low's final tournament in charge.

Die Mannschaft were comfortably the better side against Kasper Hjulmand's men, although they were denied a win when Yussuf Poulsen cancelled out Florian Neuhaus' opener 19 minutes from full-time at the Tivoli Stadion Tirol stadium in Austria. 

Germany started on the front foot, with Muller and Neuhaus forcing Kasper Schmeichel into saves inside the opening 15 minutes. 

Leroy Sane spurned a glorious chance to put Low's men ahead shortly before the half-hour mark, the Bayern Munich forward blazing a half-volley well over from 12 yards. 

Serge Gnabry went agonisingly close to breaking the deadlock moments before the interval when his curled effort from outside the penalty area crashed against the crossbar.

Germany's pressure told three minutes after the restart when Neuhaus stroked home his second international goal following a goalmouth scramble.

Denmark pulled level after a rare surge into the Germany half, Poulsen firing past Manuel Neuer after being released by Christian Eriksen.

Muller almost capped his return with the winning goal late on, but his flicked effort from Sane's cross bounced back off Schmeichel's post.

Serge Gnabry believes he could be the answer to Germany's goalscoring problem at Euro 2020.

The Bayern Munich forward has spent most of his career in wide roles, but coach Joachim Low – who will step down after the tournament – has selected just two strikers in his squad.

That suggests the coach is looking for others to make themselves available for central attacking duties, and the likes of Gnabry and Kai Havertz could be made for the job.

Havertz's Chelsea team-mate Timo Werner and Monaco forward Kevin Volland are the two frontline strikers at Low's disposal.

Germany were thrashed 6-0 by Spain last November in the Nations League, and although they began their World Cup qualifying campaign in March with wins over Iceland and Romania, a subsequent defeat to North Macedonia pointed to shortcomings.

On Wednesday they will tackle Denmark in a friendly in Innsbruck, a penultimate game before Germany launch their Euro 2020 campaign with a June 15 clash against France in Munich.

"I don't know yet whether I'll play on the wing or in the middle," Gnabry said in a pre-game news conference. "I haven't had a concrete conversation with the national coach.

"I'll do my best when I play in the centre and imitate the striker. But we have so much potential on the offensive that it doesn't really matter who is up front."

Gnabry suggested he enjoyed the central role because it inflated his chances of personal glory.

"Because you're closer to the goal, that's the only reason," Gnabry said. "I just love to score goals."

The former Arsenal player warned, however: "I'm not a [Robert] Lewandowski or [Erling] Haaland."

Gnabry scored just 11 goals for Bayern in the season just ended, after a 23-goal campaign in 2019-20, while Werner netted 12 for Chelsea and Volland hit the back of the net 18 times.

Gnabry's goals came at a healthy rate of one every 216.55 minutes, behind Volland (one every 177.11 minutes) but well ahead of Werner (one every 318.83 minutes).

Germany's Champions League finalists are not available for the Denmark game, meaning Low must get by without Havertz, Werner, Antonio Rudiger and Ilkay Gundogan.

Toni Kroos, Jamal Musiala and Leon Goretzka are also expected to be absent, the coach seeing his 26-man squad depleted.

Thomas Muller and Mats Hummels should win their first caps since November 2018, having been frozen out over the last two and a half years as Low attempted to give his team a younger look.

The coach went cap in hand to both recently, beckoning them back into his squad, and the experienced pair accepted the invitation.

Asked about Bayern team-mate Muller, Gnabry said: "He absolutely deserves it. He is incredibly effective and particularly valuable in terms of motivation. It's good to have him here."

Muller was one of only five players from Europe's top five leagues to score at least 15 goals and have at least 15 assists across all competitions in the 2020-21 season.

He scored 15 times and set up 19 goals, with the others in that exclusive club being Tottenham's Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, Manchester United playmaker Bruno Fernandes and Borussia Dortmund winger Jadon Sancho.

Hummels also had a stellar season in defence for Dortmund. He is 32 and Muller is 31, and Gnabry sees their experience and leadership qualities as being a major boon for Die Mannschaft.

"It's always good to have leaders on your team," Gnabry said. "If we all pull together, we will be successful."

Christian Eriksen was stunned by Antonio Conte leaving Serie A champions Inter and does not know what it means for his own future at the club.

Former Tottenham and Ajax midfielder Eriksen won over Conte to become a regular starter in the second half of the season.

He previously admitted to not understanding Conte's tactical ways, but the Dane became increasingly influential during the Scudetto-winning campaign.

Inter's success meant it was jarring to many that Conte should leave by mutual consent last week following post-season talks with club leaders. Eriksen, currently preparing for Euro 2020 with Denmark, admitted he was among those staggered by the news.

"It was a huge surprise. It is very special when you have just won a championship with the team and the squad. I read about it like everyone else did. And all of a sudden he was gone," Eriksen told TV 2 SPORT.

"I had not seen it coming at all. We knew they were going to have this conversation, but they did too after last season. It came as a real football shock, because one did not have the feeling that he wanted to leave now."

Eriksen, 29, was a popular figure at Tottenham before opting to join Inter in January 2020, with his contract in London close to its end.

He may still have Premier League admirers, and Eriksen wants to know who will replace Conte before he reaches any decision on whether Inter remains the right place for him.

Former Lazio boss Simone Inzaghi appears the front-runner for the post.

"We do not have a coach right now, so what is going to happen, I do not know either," Eriksen said.

"I have no idea if it's good or bad for me. I have not really thought about it. I really just thought that the European Championships should start now. And that's what it's about now.

"Then I have to see if we have got a coach before the European Championships are over. And then you can take it from there. Right now it's about Denmark, and then Inter will be put aside."

In a mostly deep-lying role, Eriksen was not as influential to Inter in an attacking sense as he was during his Spurs career.

During his final full Premier League season at Tottenham, the 2018-19 campaign, Eriksen averaged 0.26 goals per 90 minutes, 0.39 assists and 2.37 chances created.

He managed three goals for Inter in their title-winning effort, at 0.19 per 90 minutes, but did not make a single league assist and created an average of 1.94 chances.

Eriksen said he had Conte to thank for becoming a league champion in Italy, as Inter ended a nine-year run of Serie A triumphs by Juventus.

"We had a professional relationship," he said, looking back at his time with Conte. "I had a good relationship with him. Of course, we probably had some different ideas about how football should be played and delivered.

"But personally there was nothing to put a finger on. It was about winning and that was what we did."

Page 6 of 6
© 2020 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.